Buy, TP Rs 7025
IndiGo has been hit hardest by new FDTL rules, which cut pilot duty hours & raised crew needs, testing its lean, high-utilisation model
Rule change coincided with capacity expansion, tech issues, & congestion, triggering cascading disruptions
Airline is now recalibrating schedules & expects normalcy by mid-Dec.
Industry remains consolidated, though IndiGo faces rising costs from disruptions, INR weakness & higher crew expenses.
UBS on Interglobe Aviation
Buy, TP cut to Rs 6350
Inadequate preparations for revised FDTL norms lead to a major disruption
Have raised cost estimates for FY26–FY28 to account for additional crew required to comply with FDTL norms and higher operational costs driven by the depreciation of INR against Dollar
Co’s long-term growth outlook remains robust, supported by international expansion, which provides both a natural hedge and margin stability.
That said, continue to monitor developments closely.
Key downside risks include any contingent costs on account of disruption in operations and further depreciation of INR.
Investec on IndiGo
Sell, TP Rs 4040
After a weak 1HFY26, hopes for a strong 3Q recovery are fading. ATF prices are up 6% Q/Q and the INR at a new low of 90/USD, adding to cost headwinds
This was followed by widespread flight cancellations – tied largely to INDIGO’s shift to new FDTL norms – effectively ending expectations of an earnings rebound
INDIGO must comply with new FDTL norms by 10 February 2026, which may require about 20% more pilots per aircraft
This could increase costs by roughly Rs0.10 per ASK, & if not offset by fare hike, could erode PBT by around 25% (basecase: RASK – CASK = Rs0.40)
JM Financal on IndiGo
Passing turbulence could lead to some lasting cost pressures
Given the dominant 62%+ market share, GOI is unlikely to curtail capacity growth
Regulatory action including a show-cause notice to the CEO (possible management change) is likely
This will further dampen stock performance besides possible impending one-time penalty
Estimate earnings hit of 8-9% for FY26 if the situation lasts for a total of ~15 days with 5 days already done
JPM on Bajaj Fin
Neutral, TP Rs 1040
Analyst meet takeaways
Underscored its strategic vision to continue to deliver industry leading growth towards achieving its goal of 3.2-3.5% of total credit market share & 3.6-4% of retail credit market share (vs 2.8% currently) by FY30
BAF aims to improve product penetration among customers by taking product per customer to 6.5-7.5 (vs 6.05 currently), which should drive multiple benefits including
1)strong disbursement and AUM growth – midpoint of FY30 guidance implies 21.6% AUM growth CAGR and 23.9% net profit growth CAGR over FY26-30
This follows a strong delivery over last 18 years (FY08-25) with a 35% AUM CAGR and 48% net profit CAGR
2) lower acquisition cost,
(3) decline in credit costs (15-20bp lower).
Rich valuations at FY27E P/BV of 4.8x following the recent upward re-rating could cap upside,
UBS on Bajaj Fin
Sell, TP Rs 8000
Analyst meet takeaways
Outlined its long range strategy for FY30 detailing key high level metrics
Co has marginally moderated its market share expectations in retail credit, AUM/ PAT per customer and location presence by FY30 vs that it outlined last year for FY29
In base case, estimate that this implies 21- 25% AUM CAGR over 1HFY26 and FY30
Co highlighted that it can continue to grow AUM at 17-19% annually and expects increased customer mining by AI to get additional growth
GS on Biocon
Neutral, TP Rs 375
Announces planned integration with Biocon Biologics sub
Attributed deal to following:
a) Simplified corporate structure (including HoldCo discount),
b) Larger balance sheet with improved financial metrics,
c) Operational synergies (not quantified at this stage) through consolidation of group resources including commercial and manufacturing infrastructure
d) Strengthening Biocon’s global position to lead in diabetes, oncology, and immunology.
Deal contours Biocon agreed to acquire stakes in BBL from Serum, Tata Capital and True North through a share swap of 70.28 biocon shares for every BBL share at a price of Rs405.78 (price on 1st Dec).
Biocon will also acquire residual stake held by Viatris for a total consideration of US$815mn – US$400mn in cash & rest in Biocon shares at a swap ratio of 61.7 Biocon shares for 100 shares in BBL
Two buyback agreements value BBL in the range of US$5-5.5bn
BOFA Sec on Biocon
Buy, TP Rs 455
BIOS deal to integrate BBL as wholly owned sub by acq. BBL minority stake (mix of share swap & cash); est Mar-26 completion
Deal leads to simplifed corp structure (removal of BBL holdco discount), cross-leverage R&D/ manfg, optionality for debt redn
Deal net neutral per initial BofAe but watch dilution from QIP for cash payment to Viatris & lock-in period for BBL minority
Avendus Spark on Biocon
Recommendation Add; Target Price ₹435
Biocon-BBL Integration: Strategically Sound, Fairly Valued
Simplifies the corporate structure, removes the holdco discount associated with BBL and allows Biocon to capture 100% value of its biosimilars business
Deal provides liquidity to long standing minority shareholders of BBL
See commercial synergies in therapy areas such as diabetes
Kotak Inst Eqt on Tata Capital
Initiate ADD, TP Rs 360
Tata Capital is India’s third-largest NBFC, with a loan book of Rs2.44 tn as of 2QFY26.
A well-diversified portfolio (with predominant focus on retail, 61% of loan book) and recent footprint expansion will likely drive a 21% CAGR in gross loans over FY2025-28E
Rundown/turnaround of the recently merged TMFL’s loss-making business and improving leverage will drive a 29% EPS CAGR FY2025-28E with RoE expanding to 15.7% by FY2028E from a low base of 12.5% (15.1% ex-TMFL) in FY2025.
GS on Hospitals
India’s top hospital chains expected to add 17,000+ beds by FY30 across major metros
No major oversupply risk; most catchment areas remain under-served
Growth to be driven by bed additions + margin expansion, supporting strong EBITDA growth through FY25-28
GS used historical regression analysis to identify hospitals best placed to benefit from the capex cycle
KIMS – BUY, target price Rs900; strong 26% EBITDA CAR; market undervaluing new hospital ramps
Max Healthcare – BUY, target price Rs1,325; sector-best execution; ~23% EBITDA CAGR backed by steady bed expansion
Fortis Healthcare – NEUTRAL, target price Rs965; risk-reward balanced post strong outperformance
Apollo Hospitals – BUY, target price Rs8,550
KEY RISKS: Insurance vs hospital pricing dynamics; Clinical talent attrition and availability
GS on Max Healthcare
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 1325
Initiate on account of:
1) Top-quartile growth (23%/24% topline/ EBITDA CAGRs respectively over FY25-28E) driven by bed expansions;
2) Industry-leading profitability metrics led by operational efficiencies;
3) Highest potential to expand capacity (backed by strongest balance sheet + FCF profile vs. peers)
GS on KIMS
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 900
expect:
KIMS to deliver industry leading topline growth of 30% CAGR over FY25-28E driven by ramp-up of new hospitals
Margins at ~21% (vs 26% in FY25) offer largest upside within India Hospitals coverage as current profitability is suppressed by losses at new units
KIMS is positioned to achieve top-quartile return metrics with RoE of 25% once operations stabilize
MS on Suzlon
OW, TP Rs 78
Analyst meet takeaways,
India wind addition: F26: 6GW, F27: 8-9GW, F28: 12GW. Likely to exceed 2030 target of 100GW
Further 20-30GW upside from C&I segment.
Key drivers: a) large under construction pipeline, b) increase in intra state bids & c) increasing demand from C&I segment
40GW projects under execution o/w ~25GW yet to be ordered out to OEMs.
Intrastate bids would increase with ISTS waiver reducing.
Intrastate have lower risk of delays (lower capacity constraints and right of way issues).
Nuvama on Sona BLW
Buy, TP Rs 750
Management meet Highlights,
i) Double-digit growth likely over FY25–28E led by Railways buyout and order book of INR236bn.
ii) Order wins likely in 12 months due to bankruptcy of EU competitors.
iii) In Railways, growth to be driven by INR13bn order book to be executed, mainly over next 12 months.
iv) In traction motors, new programmes with 2W/3W OEMs to aid robust growth over next three years.
Factoring in higher growth in Railways/traction motors, raising FY27E/28E EBITDA by 2–9%.
Emkay on Fino Payment Bank
Recommendation Add; Target Price ₹330; Earlier Target ₹300
SFB license to ease deposit, lending restrictions
Fino to emerge as a unique SFB with a payment (fee) cum lending business
GS on MPC Meeting
RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25%; stance remains neutral
Announced OMOs and FX buy/sell swaps to ensure INR liquidity amid declining durable liquidity
Governor reiterated RBI intervenes only to reduce volatility, not target a specific rupee level
FY26 inflation forecast cut by 60 bps to 2.0%, driven by benign food and subdued core inflation (ex-gold)
FY26 growth forecast raised to 7.3% (+50 bps)
Inflation expectations revised: CY25 at 2.3%, FY26 at 2.2%
Benign inflation outlook provides policy space to support growth
Baseline: inflation stays below target for two quarters, then moves back toward 4%, limiting further cuts
If US tariff uncertainty persists beyond CY25 and impacts growth, an additional 25 bps cut in CY26 is possible
CITI on MPC Meeting / Banks
Banks may see near-term NIM pressure in 4Q, but NiMs are approaching a cyclical trough
Further room to cut MCLR and reduce term deposit / savings deposit rates
Citi sees scope for €50,000 cr-z1 lakh cr in OMO purchases in 4QFY26, with more if Bop pressures persist
Favourable view on AU SFB, RBL Bank, SBI, and Bank of Baroda
