The Oceania Times

Top Menu

  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Cookie Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions

Main Menu

  • Australian Economy
  • Brokers
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • Financial Market
  • Gold and Precious Metals
  • Investment
  • Stock Shares
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Cookie Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions

logo

The Oceania Times

  • Australian Economy
  • Brokers
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • Financial Market
  • Gold and Precious Metals
  • Investment
  • Stock Shares
  • Singapore and Australia exploring ‘ambitious’ green economy agreement: Vivian Balakrishnan

  • Emma Walmsley Buys 7 Shares of GSK plc (LON:GSK) Stock

  • Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

  • Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

  • Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

Currencies
Home›Currencies›What’s a Reverse Currency War and Who’s Fighting One?

What’s a Reverse Currency War and Who’s Fighting One?

By Megan
June 23, 2022
8
0
Share:
Placeholder while article actions load

Currency wars flare up from time to time, usually during moments of economic tumult. They typically involve countries jockeying for a competitive export edge by driving down their currencies. What’s less common is a so-called reverse currency war. But it’s possible that one could be brewing, whether as the result of deliberate policies or as a side effect of steps central banks are taking to fight inflation. In particular, the sharp rise in the value of the dollar as the US Federal Reserve pursues its most aggressive interest-rate hikes in almost 30 years is posing challenges to currencies and central banks around the world. 

1. What’s a currency war?

If a country’s currency falls in relation to other currencies, that can help its economy. Its exports become cheaper relative to competitors, boosting demand from abroad, while higher import prices spur domestic consumption of more homegrown products and services. And both of these provide support to local producers. A round of competitive devaluations is thought to have deepened the Great Depression that began in 1929, with countries leaving the then-prevalent gold standard to weaken their currencies. In the early years of this century, the US and other rich countries complained that China was depressing the value of its currency, the yuan, to increase exports. But the phrase “currency war” was only popularized around 2010, when Brazil’s then-finance minister, Guido Mantega, accused wealthier nations of devaluing their currencies to stimulate economies still reeling from the financial crisis of two years before. 

2. What’s a reverse currency war? 

A situation in which countries work to make their currency stronger. Rather than boosting growth, the goal of any such move is to help tame inflation, since a stronger currency means that imports are relatively cheaper. The Fed’s actions have boosted the US dollar, driving up Bloomberg’s gauge of greenback strength by close to 7% this year. On the flipside, the euro — which is used by more than 300 million people in Europe — has fallen to a five-year low against the greenback, while the British pound and a majority of other important currencies have slumped too.

3. Does a stronger currency really curb inflation?

Currency strength does weigh on inflation but just how much is both debatable and subject to change, depending on circumstances. The degree to which exchange rate changes affect core inflation — which excludes volatile factors like food and energy — is called the pass-through rate. In some previous bouts of dollar strength, that rate’s been marginal. But some, such as Citigroup Inc. chief economist Nathan Sheets, argue that it could be higher during times of elevated inflation. In 2020, when inflation was subdued, a 10% increase in the value of the dollar would have been expected to dampen increases in the consumer price index by only about half a percentage point. But at the current pace of inflation, which has been fueled in large part by higher commodity costs, the pass-through coefficients could be more than double that, approaching a full percentage point, said Sheets, who previously worked for the US Treasury and Federal Reserve.

4. What are central banks saying about this? 

Most central banks seek to steer their economy through a combination of interest-rate changes and balance-sheet actions, and are usually wary of doing or saying anything that could be construed as trying to manage exchange rates directly. The US Treasury can (and has at various times) labeled some trading partners as currency manipulators if it believes they’re trying to gain an unfair advantage. The Fed, for its part, emphasizes that its goal in raising interest rates is to fight inflation by curbing demand rather than bolstering the dollar. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that the central bank’s commitment to price stability has strengthened confidence in the dollar as a store of value. Yet while most of the Fed’s major global counterparts have historically tended to walk a similar tightrope around currency issues, some are becoming more vocal about the link between exchange rates and inflation.

One sign of how things have changed recently is that some central banks previously known for using direct foreign-exchange intervention to weaken their currencies are now doing the opposite. The Swiss National Bank, which historically has acted in currency markets to weaken the franc, has allowed its currency to strengthen this year and said in June it would consider selling foreign currency if it weakened excessively. “We let the Swiss franc appreciate,” SNB President Thomas Jordan said in March. “This is one of the reasons why in Switzerland inflation is lower than compared to the euro zone or the United States.” European Central Bank official Francois Villeroy de Galhau, meanwhile, has said that a euro which is “too weak” would go against that monetary authority’s price-stability objective, and in the UK, the Bank of England’s Catherine Mann went even further by highlighting how a faster pace of tightening could support the pound.

6. Are there winners and losers?

Consumers from the countries that successfully rally their currencies are the clear winners during a reverse currency war, with domestic prices tempered slightly due to greater buying power. But there are plenty of losers, including multinational corporations, nations that rely on exports and emerging economies. US companies ranging from Salesforce Inc. to Costco Wholesale Corp. have raised complaints about the surging dollar on recent earnings calls. That’s because a stronger greenback lessens the value of those companies’ foreign revenue when translated back into dollars. It also makes their products less competitive as prices rise in local currency terms, reducing demand. For developing economies, there’s the risk that a “currency mismatch,” which takes place when governments, corporations or financial institutions have debt in US dollars but pay in a depreciating local currency, can push them into financial jeopardy. 

7. Who isn’t joining the party?

With a nose-diving currency, Japan appears to be playing by the currency war’s old rules. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has kept yields anchored to the floor in an effort to stimulate the economy. In the process, the yen has fallen precipitously, dropping more than 15% this year against the US dollar — the biggest drop of any Group-of-10 currency. In mid-June, ahead of the BOJ’s most recent policy meeting, Kuroda shifted his stance slightly, signaling that the central bank was watching the currency, in a rare departure from the status quo of staying mum on the country’s exchange rate. He conceded that the yen’s abrupt slide wasn’t advantageous for the country’s economy, though the bank didn’t alter policy settings.

• Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers on Lehman-era precedents for the current market rout and how central bank actions are different this time around.

• The Bank of England’s Catherine Mann explains how interest rates elsewhere can spill over to affect the UK economy.

• QuickTakes on why Japan’s yen is so weak and on the many risks that emerging market countries are facing.

• Bloomberg Intelligence on whether the US faces a return to 1970s stagflation, and the difficulty of nailing a soft landing.

• University of California, Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen on old-school currency wars.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

Source link

Previous Article

Schroders favours commodities and alts amid recession ...

Next Article

Just Mortgages passes new broker milestone

0
Shares
  • 0
  • +
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0

Megan

Related articles More from author

  • Currencies

    China loan prime rate, oil and currencies

    June 19, 2022
    By Megan
  • Currencies

    Digital currency coming for Barbados, rest of region

    June 4, 2022
    By Megan
  • Currencies

    Egan-Jones Releases Risk Commentary – Breaking Inflation, Moving Currencies, and Ukraine Next Steps

    June 9, 2022
    By Megan
  • Currencies

    Opinion: Cash in the bank: Cutting through the noise on digital currencies

    May 23, 2022
    By Megan
  • Currencies

    Dollar rises as hot US inflation data seen keeping Fed hawkish

    June 11, 2022
    By Megan
  • Currencies

    Currency Rate In Pakistan – Dollar, Euro, Pound, Riyal Rates On 19 June 2022

    June 19, 2022
    By Megan

Leave a reply Cancel reply

You may interested

  • Investment

    $12.2M infrastructure investment in Binghamton

  • Brokers

    Annual General and Special Meeting (‘AGM’) Results and appointment of Panmure Gordon (UK) Limited as Joint Corporate Broker

  • Stock Shares

    Automakers, banks knock Indian shares off four-week highs

  • LATEST REVIEWS

  • TOP REVIEWS

Timeline

  • July 6, 2022

    Singapore and Australia exploring ‘ambitious’ green economy agreement: Vivian Balakrishnan

  • July 6, 2022

    Emma Walmsley Buys 7 Shares of GSK plc (LON:GSK) Stock

  • July 6, 2022

    Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

  • July 6, 2022

    Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

  • July 6, 2022

    Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

Best Reviews

Latest News

Australian Economy

Singapore and Australia exploring ‘ambitious’ green economy agreement: Vivian Balakrishnan

SINGAPORE: Singapore and Australia are aiming for an “ambitious” and “practical” green economy agreement that will make a difference to both countries, said Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan on ...
  • Emma Walmsley Buys 7 Shares of GSK plc (LON:GSK) Stock

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Recent

  • Popular

  • Comments

  • Singapore and Australia exploring ‘ambitious’ green economy agreement: Vivian Balakrishnan

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Emma Walmsley Buys 7 Shares of GSK plc (LON:GSK) Stock

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Singapore and Australia exploring ‘ambitious’ green economy agreement: Vivian Balakrishnan

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Australian economy survived Covid better than most but recovery could slow, OECD says | Australian ...

    By Megan
    September 14, 2021
  • The Best Online Brokers, According to 5 Financial Experts

    By Megan
    September 14, 2021
  • Is Disaster Looming for Australia’s Economy?

    By Megan
    September 29, 2021

Trending News

  • Australian Economy

    Singapore and Australia exploring ‘ambitious’ green economy agreement: Vivian Balakrishnan

    SINGAPORE: Singapore and Australia are aiming for an “ambitious” and “practical” green economy agreement that will make a difference to both countries, said Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan on ...
  • Stock Shares

    Emma Walmsley Buys 7 Shares of GSK plc (LON:GSK) Stock

    GSK plc (LON:GSK – Get Rating) insider Emma Walmsley bought 7 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, July 4th. The stock was bought at ...
  • Brokers

    Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

    TALLAHASSEE — As the number of patients approved to use medical marijuana in Florida continues to climb, some providers are growing increasingly frustrated by what they allege are bad actors ...
  • Stock Shares

    Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

    Xponance Inc. boosted its holdings in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ – Get Rating) by 1.3% in the 1st quarter, HoldingsChannel reports. The firm owned 239,452 shares of the company’s stock ...
  • Australian Economy

    Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

    SINGAPORE – Australia and Singapore will seek to draw on the “huge reservoir” of strategic trust between them to strengthen supply chains that could withstand future crises, said Foreign Minister ...
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Cookie Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
© Copyright The Oceania Times. All rights reserved.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER

Get our latest downloads and information first. Complete the form below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter.