Casey Seymour and Greg “Machinery Pete” Peterson see a used equipment market that has flipped from last year, when dealers pushed out a glut of late model, used equipment to auction.
Today, the number of 1–to-3-year-old high-horsepower tractors (300 hp and up) on the market is down 60% from last year, and late model combine listings are down 54%, according to Pete. Yet surprisingly, auction activity is up 14% from last year, too.
So, retail sales and the farm equipment market are in a prolonged slump, but auctions are still booming. It’s an odd juxtaposition, and dealers have to figure out how to navigate the uncertainty in the middle of the busy auction season.
“If I’m a dealer, and 2024 was painful and we’re having these huge losses, but we keep talking about [having] this footing – that’s why you’re not having a huge sale – but maybe [you’re] streaming out five tractors on this auction or two on that one,” Pete says. “That’s what I’m seeing. Whereas last year it was just, the spigot was open, and dealer items were everywhere.”
Seymour expected more dealer liquidation auctions in Q4, but dealer reps tell him they are not planning a big push of equipment to auction this year.
“[We] have this stagnant marketplace, where it’s not getting any better, and it’s not getting any worse,” he says. “You’re just kind of stuck in the middle. But to still see the auction activity that we’re seeing and the prices we’re seeing, it feels like we’re at the bottom.”
Pete agrees with that take, pointing to a growing trend of multi-dealer auctions, like the Rich & Rich Red Power Auction this weekend in North Carolina, as another sign the market is down. He is also seeing an increase in farm retirement auctions as farmers try to avoid losing equity.
Pete wonders if the rumored farmer aid package from the Trump administration will spark a dead-cat bounce on used machinery values and farmer buying activity?
“I don’t see that making its way to the equipment side. They’re going to shore up [debts] first, build back up and then probably [buy] inputs, but I guess it depends on if it’s taxable or not,” Seymour says.
Pete and Seymour tried to stick to farm equipment trends and what’s happening in the auction world, but the guys could not ignore the giant elephant in the room. They share thoughts on the impact of social media on political tensions in rural America, and why they think politicians should come down to an in-person auction and have some real conversations with real Americans.
The Rest of The Episode
Commodities analyst Shawn Hackett joins Seymour to break down the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on crop prices, and used equipment specialist Aaron Fintel closes out the episode with a chat about how livestock payments are driving more buying activity on loader tractors out west in his neck of the woods.
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