The Oceania Times

Top Menu

  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Cookie Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions

Main Menu

  • Australian Economy
  • Brokers
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • Financial Market
  • Gold and Precious Metals
  • Investment
  • Stock Shares
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Cookie Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions

logo

The Oceania Times

  • Australian Economy
  • Brokers
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • Financial Market
  • Gold and Precious Metals
  • Investment
  • Stock Shares
  • Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

  • Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

  • Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

  • Crypto broker Voyager Digital files for bankruptcy – TechCrunch

  • European shares climb on easing energy worries as Norway strike ends

Australian Economy
Home›Australian Economy›Delta has hit Australia’s economy harder than any other OECD nation. But it’s not all bad news | Greg Jericho

Delta has hit Australia’s economy harder than any other OECD nation. But it’s not all bad news | Greg Jericho

By Megan
October 13, 2021
11
0
Share:

The Delta strain of Covid has hit Australia harder than any other major economy, according to the IMF, but overall its projections for Australia’s economy for the next five years are decidedly fine – but nothing more than that.

Trying to decipher the health of the economy is rather tough amid lockdowns.

The latest building approval figures out on Wednesday are a case in point. The actual amount of residential building work done by the private sector in the June quarter fell 0.6%, which in normal times suggests a weak construction sector.

But these of course are not normal times. The record low interest rates and the homebuilder initiative has seen an extraordinary increase in the number of home loans being taken out to build a house.

And as a result, while the value of work done fell, the value of residential building work commenced rose 24%:

If the graph does not display click here

The amount of work that is in the pipeline and about to be done is quite large.

But all these figures cover the time before New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT went into severe lockdowns. That will likely have an impact, but still it would seem things are not too bad, and once the restrictions are eased there is a lot of work to get on with.

Certainly construction workers in NSW would hope this is the case because since the lockdown their jobs have shrunk, while construction work elsewhere continues apace:

If the graph does not display click here

But if you think it is hard to explain what is going on in the economy right now, spare a thought for those trying to predict what will happen.

And into that space comes the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, which projects economic activity across the globe out to 2026.

The title of outlooks are always a good litmus test for how the global economy is travelling.

The last one before the pandemic arrived had the small optimism of Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery? then came The Great Lockdown followed in June last year by A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery.

This April, with vaccinations in the early stages, the recovery seemed more certain and so the IMF went with Managing Divergent Recoveries. But now with the Delta variant wreaking havoc, the IMF has begun to see problems: Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery.

Given the severe lockdowns in NSW and Victoria, the IMF has downgraded Australia’s projected economic growth for this year from the 4.5% prediction in April to 3.5%.

It is the biggest downgrade by any nation in the OECD:

If the graph does not display click here

This of course is not something to boast about, but it is not all bad news, befcause it has also upgraded its prediction for growth next year – by almost more than any other OECD nation. All that had really happened is the IMF pushed out its prediction for growth by a year.

Even better, the IMF predicts stronger growth out to 2026 now than it thought was the case when it made its last prediction in April:

If the graph does not display click here

The IMF also now predicts unemployment will fall closer to 4% than it expected in April:

If the graph does not display click here

All of which is to say, once we get past the lockdowns, the economy should continue to recover as it was prior to July.

And for all the talk about inflation rising once again, while the IMF does predict inflation in the United States will be above 3% though next year, Australia’s inflation is not expected to rise on average above 2.5% any time before 2027:

If the graph does not display click here

That does not suggest much hope for strong wages growth in that time either.

And perhaps one reason is that while the IMF has slightly upgraded its forecasts for Australia economic activity over the next four years, it is not what you would call stellar growth – it is fine, but fine in the sense of when someone asks you how you are feeling you say, “Fine, thanks.”

If the graph does not display click here

Other than this year and the next, when the recovery from the pandemic has caused abnormally strong GDP growth, growth until 2027 looks pretty modest – averaging around the same level of growth we had in the decade after the GFC.

So while the big downgrade to GDP growth for this year might be the thing that catches the eye, the problem is not so much that short-term error but that after the pandemic there is little to get excited about.

But as we saw this year, predictions can easily go astray. For Australia it would be nice if from now on the predictive errors occur due to being too pessimistic rather than the opposite.

Source link

Previous Article

Is Disaster Looming for Australia’s Economy?

Next Article

Australian economy languishes while Ireland, Singapore, NZ ...

0
Shares
  • 0
  • +
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0

Megan

Related articles More from author

  • Australian Economy

    Goldman Sachs, Bank of America back 1.35pc cash rate by July

    June 3, 2022
    By Megan
  • Australian Economy

    Australian leader visits Indonesia’s Makassar to deepen ties

    June 7, 2022
    By Megan
  • Australian Economy

    Strategist: Last Australian government lost Chinese votes

    June 15, 2022
    By Megan
  • Australian Economy

    Is Australia in the firing line of a new Chinese campaign against the US?

    June 30, 2022
    By Megan
  • Australian Economy

    Is Disaster Looming for Australia’s Economy?

    September 29, 2021
    By Megan
  • Australian Economy

    Over 32,000 people in Sydney may need to flee amid Australia’s worst floods

    July 4, 2022
    By Megan

Leave a reply Cancel reply

You may interested

  • Investment

    Recognizing Outstanding Black Fund Managers and Investment Strategies on Juneteenth

  • Investment

    Downstream investment in Europe agrifoodtech barely overtook upstream

  • Gold and Precious Metals

    Team Hawaii returns home with Gold medal finish in ISA World Junior Surfing Championship

  • LATEST REVIEWS

  • TOP REVIEWS

Timeline

  • July 6, 2022

    Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

  • July 6, 2022

    Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

  • July 6, 2022

    Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

  • July 6, 2022

    Crypto broker Voyager Digital files for bankruptcy – TechCrunch

  • July 6, 2022

    European shares climb on easing energy worries as Norway strike ends

Best Reviews

Latest News

Brokers

Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

TALLAHASSEE — As the number of patients approved to use medical marijuana in Florida continues to climb, some providers are growing increasingly frustrated by what they allege are bad actors ...
  • Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Crypto broker Voyager Digital files for bankruptcy – TechCrunch

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • European shares climb on easing energy worries as Norway strike ends

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Recent

  • Popular

  • Comments

  • Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Crypto broker Voyager Digital files for bankruptcy – TechCrunch

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

    By Megan
    July 6, 2022
  • Australian economy survived Covid better than most but recovery could slow, OECD says | Australian ...

    By Megan
    September 14, 2021
  • The Best Online Brokers, According to 5 Financial Experts

    By Megan
    September 14, 2021
  • Is Disaster Looming for Australia’s Economy?

    By Megan
    September 29, 2021

Trending News

  • Brokers

    Medical marijuana provider cries foul over online brokers, telehealth evaluations – Orlando Sentinel

    TALLAHASSEE — As the number of patients approved to use medical marijuana in Florida continues to climb, some providers are growing increasingly frustrated by what they allege are bad actors ...
  • Stock Shares

    Xponance Inc. Acquires 3,047 Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

    Xponance Inc. boosted its holdings in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ – Get Rating) by 1.3% in the 1st quarter, HoldingsChannel reports. The firm owned 239,452 shares of the company’s stock ...
  • Australian Economy

    Australia, Singapore to explore boosting supply chain resilience: Vivian

    SINGAPORE – Australia and Singapore will seek to draw on the “huge reservoir” of strategic trust between them to strengthen supply chains that could withstand future crises, said Foreign Minister ...
  • Brokers

    Crypto broker Voyager Digital files for bankruptcy – TechCrunch

    Voyager Digital, a high-profile crypto broker, has filed for bankruptcy, citing market volatility and the surprising collapse of Three Arrows Capital, just weeks after it suspended withdrawals, trading and deposits ...
  • Stock Shares

    European shares climb on easing energy worries as Norway strike ends

    The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Staff Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register Just ...
  • About us
  • Contact Us
  • Cookie Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
© Copyright The Oceania Times. All rights reserved.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER

Get our latest downloads and information first. Complete the form below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter.