The setup is straightforward: oil’s holding above the 50% retracement at $59.23, which puts a bullish tilt on the near-term structure. The 50-day moving average at $59.98 is the line that matters now — it’s capped rallies since late October, and a clean break above it would signal buyers are back. From there, the 200-day MA at $61.05 comes into play if momentum builds.
Downside risk starts below $59.44, but the real trigger for a sharper drop sits at $58.44, the 61.8% support level. For now, dip-buying is winning.
Why the Bounce? Geopolitics Still Matter
The rally has legs because the peace deal hope trade just got shelved. Putin and Trump’s envoys spent five hours in a room and came out with nothing. No compromise, no path forward — at least not yet. That keeps sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in place, which means Russian barrels stay restricted.
Goldman’s take: the market wasn’t pricing much hope for a quick deal anyway, and Wednesday’s news confirms that view. Prediction markets aren’t betting on imminent sanctions relief, and neither are oil traders.
Putin added fuel to the fire Tuesday, saying European powers are sabotaging U.S. peace efforts with proposals Moscow won’t accept. Then he threatened retaliation against tankers from countries helping Ukraine — a not-so-subtle escalation after Ukrainian strikes hit Russian oil export sites and two sanctioned tankers last week.
Bottom line: the geopolitical risk premium isn’t going away. As long as supply risks linger and sanctions stay locked in, buyers have a reason to step in on weakness.
