Long-Term Fibonacci Roadmap
Confirmation opens a clear sequence of higher targets: the 61.8% retracement of the multi-year downswing at $5.28 leads the way, followed by a 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $5.52 and a separate 50% retracement of another long-term decline at $5.78. These levels now define the upside path for the developing bull market.
Classic Triangle & Momentum Context
The ascending triangle is a basic bullish continuation patterns, and its clean resolution after October’s higher swing low at $2.89 underscores improving underlying demand. Still, the velocity of the move raises legitimate short-term overextension concerns—can buyers maintain this intensity after eclipsing such a pivotal level? The market should provide clues shortly.
Moving Average Support Confirmed
Friday’s precise test and bullish explosion off the 10-day average, combined with the earlier successful defense of the 20-day line (the first retest since late-October reclamation), delivered exactly the reaction an intact uptrend should produce. These consecutive higher-average defenses are fresh, powerful evidence of strengthening momentum.
Critical Support Levels
The 10-day average now serves as primary near-term dynamic support, with the 20-day line the deeper gauge of trend health. A violation of the 10-day flags caution and targets the 20-day; a break there would place the entire advance from October lows in jeopardy and open risk of a sharper correction.
Outlook
Natural gas sits at a pivotal confirmation point—one solid daily close above $4.90 launches the next leg toward $5.28–$5.78. Moving average support remains the key barometer: hold the 10-day and 20-day on any pullback and the bull case stays dominant; failure invites deeper profit-taking. Momentum overwhelmingly favors buyers until proven otherwise.
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