At 13:35 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.360, up $0.027 or +0.81%.
Can the EIA Report Override Bearish Weather and Production Signals?
The consensus among analysts is for a +77 Bcf injection for the week ending October 3, well below the five-year average build of +94 Bcf. This softer-than-average injection follows last week’s bullish +53 Bcf build, which also came in well under expectations. If confirmed, a second consecutive light injection could bolster the bull case—especially if prices remain above the 50-day moving average.
However, bearish headwinds persist. Wednesday’s sharp selloff was triggered by updated forecasts showing a warmer trend for mid-to-late October, particularly across the southern and eastern U.S., which could reduce heating demand.
NatGasWeather now expects light to moderate demand over the next seven days, despite the current cold shot in the Midwest and Northeast. Demand is forecast to drop again before picking up briefly between October 19–22.
How Is Rising Production and Flat LNG Flow Pressuring Prices?
High U.S. production continues to weigh on prices. The EIA raised its 2025 forecast to 107.14 Bcf/d, up from 106.60 Bcf/d in September. Current lower-48 production is hovering at 106.8 Bcf/d—up 4.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, LNG feedgas flows are holding steady at 15.5 Bcf/d, showing no meaningful increase to absorb surplus domestic supply.
Storage levels also remain elevated. As of late September, inventories were 5.0% above the five-year average and 0.4% higher than last year. In Europe, gas storage is at 83% capacity, just below the five-year norm of 90%, suggesting overseas demand may be limited in the near term.
