Brokers are tipping more rises in suezmax rates, with activity likely to pick up this week.
The Baltic Exchange assessed average spot rates at $58,400 per day, up 5% from Friday.
Sentosa Ship Brokers tallied 19 suezmax cargoes covered for the first 10 days of November, which is “notably light” against an average of 24 deals previously in what is generally considered the busiest part of the month.
And the tonnage list remains fairly tight all the way out to mid-month, the Singapore shop said.
Looking ahead, Sentosa added that in the middle 10 days of November, there is a “messy cluster” of seven ships lurking around Singapore with uncertain fuel oil positions, and a further seven yet to discharge in India.
West Africa remains a genuine draw for suezmax owners, acting as a siphon for ships westward.
This should, in turn, keep Middle East Gulf sentiment elevated even if enquiries stay modest, Sentosa argued.
“Alongside this, aframaxes remain firm and tight in the Middle East Gulf, so don’t be surprised if this is the week suezmaxes get drafted as substitutes where aframaxes simply don’t exist,” the company added.
“That alone could be the unexpected catalyst for some aggression if a few prompt stems appear in quick succession.”
Sentosa pointed to “one final wild card”: a fire at the oilfield in Khor-al-Zubair, Iraq, on Sunday that killed two people.
The incident occurred during welding operations on a crude pipeline at a storage and pumping facility.
The field is one of Iraq’s largest and oldest production sites, with an output capacity of about 450,000 barrels per day.
“Too early to judge actual damage or operational disruption — but any delays or cargo reshuffling coming out of that could well inject a fresh layer of volatility into this current fixing window or simply stem the flow of cargoes and leave a few extra vessels prompt come the end of this week,” the Singapore brokerage said.
The company noted “one black swan event after another these days”.
“As ever, tough to call … but we believe it should be a little firmer still this week in the Middle East Gulf,” its tanker brokers said.
UK shipbroker Gibson noted rates in Asia moving upwards, with difficulties still being caused by the new Chinese port fees.
Levels into the West from the Middle East are tipped to rise.
And runs to Asia from the Middle East could also strengthen, the company said.
The London shop reported “very limited” numbers of tankers available.
Despite a quiet start in West Africa, activity has started to pick up again off the back of a tight ship list in the US Gulf, Gibson said.
The brokerage expects owners to keep pushing for better numbers this week.
Many will be hesitant to fix quickly in anticipation of a rising market, it argued.
