Some ASX dividend shares are expected to pay very large payouts in the next couple of years.

The ASX share market has returned an average of around 10% per annum over the long-term. That return has been made up of a return of dividends and capital growth.

What if some ASX shares were able to deliver a (grossed-up) dividend yield of at least 10%? Dividends are not guaranteed and can be cut. However, it could be useful if a business were able to pay large dividends and also deliver capital growth. Of course, capital growth isn’t guaranteed either. A major risk of the ASX share market is an investment not working out.

However, experts believe the below businesses are both good value and could pay large dividends.

Australian Finance Group Ltd (ASX: AFG)

Macquarie is one broker that currently rates Australian Finance Group as a buy.

This ASX dividend share is one of the largest mortgage broking businesses in Australia. It claims to write around 10% of residential mortgages.

The Australian Finance Group share price ended last week down 6.5% at $1.72.

The price target is $2.94 – that implies a potential rise of around 70%.

There is a lot of market focus on rising interest rates at the moment, but Macquarie thinks that Australian Finance Group could be a winner as borrowers try to find a better loan by refinancing.

The company says that brokers are systematically important to all lenders, including those with branch networks, as they provide competition and choice. The overall broker market share of mortgages continues to grow – it was 67% in the first quarter of FY22, up from 50% in FY16.

The company is looking to grow its market share and grow margins through expanding into lending and across non-residential asset classes. Management note that the future development of an asset financing lending product will further accelerate growth.

Macquarie thinks that the ASX dividend share is going to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 12.6% in FY22 and 12.8% in FY23.

New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC)

New Hope is one of the largest coal miners in Australia, with its projects including New Acland and Bengalla.

The business is currently benefiting from the elevated price of coal amid strong energy prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In the quarter for the three months to April 2022, the business generated $358.6 million of underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and it made $281.8 million of cash generation.

However, rainfall and COVID-19 has affected the production in recent months.

Credit Suisse currently rates the business as a buy, with a price target of $4.90. With the New Hope share price closing out last week at $3.84, that implies a possible rise of close to 30%. The broker thinks that New Hope could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 27% in FY22 and 34% in FY23.